Like a lot of people, I think I was relatively convinced native mobile Apps would give way mobile web when HTML 5 got to town. This year was the first time I noticed a shift in that conventional wisdom. Partly propelled by the runaway success of native apps. Consider the evidence:-8 Billion apps have been downloaded to date.
-50 Billion app downloads are predicted by end 2012
-Angry Birds made $1 million dollars in 24 hours.
-65 million Americans are currently using smartphones
HTML 5 brings the promise of broader reach, cheaper development and ease of distribution. But as we port more of our lives to the cloud, the question of constant connectivity comes into play. In a no apps world, there isn't a heck of lot you can do without connection.
Apps, on the other hand, have the benefit of being "always on". At least for now, they also offer a depth of engagement that oustrips mobile web. Additionally, and perhaps most significantly, gaming's meteoric growth has been fueled by the use of native apps. And it's unlikely gaming will detach from being app-based in the near term.
If I had to sum up the sentiment, I think it would be that native apps and web will probably comingle rather than compete. The big players (Facebook, Twitter Foursquare) seem committed to cross-platform development. The growth of apps is not only immense. But consumers seem to have carved the concept of apps into their neural pathways with such force, that it seems unlikely app use will sharply fall prey to mobile web.
